QuickAssessments

In 2014, Russia seized the Crimean peninsula and destabilized Ukraine’s Eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. In the Western world, scholars often interrogate themselves over the possibility to see Crimea returned to Ukraine. Many of them believe that Crimea might not be necessarily lost forever; however, several considerations suggest that the contrary is true. Instead, the case is different for the two provinces in Eastern Ukraine. To begin with, Russia is installing new missile-defense systems in the peninsula. Back in the spring of 2017, Moscow deployed a division armed with S-400 “Triumph” missile-defense systems near Feodosia, in Crimea. This system is capable of hitting aircrafts and ICBMs flying within a range of 400 km and 60 km respectively. Recently, after the decision of the Trump administration to provide Ukraine with American weapons, Russia responded installing another division of S-400s near the city of Sevastopol. Tellingly, these devices can be turned int...

In the past two weeks, Russian forces in Syria have been under attack. After a deadly mortar assault, the last significant episode was an attempted aerial strike carried out by a swarm of 13 miniature drones. Franco Iacch , an Italian military analyst, reported that each device traveled up to 50 km following GPS coordinates before trying to unload eight to ten grenades against Russia’s Hmeimim and Tartus bases. The drones were neutralized by Russian  defense systems. However, one month after Vladimir Putin claimed victory in Syria, these developments raise doubts on the truthfulness of his statements. Nobody claimed the responsibility for the attacks. This likely excludes jihadist groups as potential perpetrators. Moreover, the level of sophistication of the drones and the capabilities needed to carry out the attack demonstrate know-how that the Islamic State and other jihadist formations in Syria do not have. In the past ISIS finalized several strikes using commercial quadri-...