WHOSE DRONES ATTACKED RUSSIAN BASES IN SYRIA?
Nobody claimed the responsibility for the attacks. This likely excludes jihadist
groups as potential perpetrators. Moreover, the level of sophistication of the drones and
the capabilities needed to carry out the attack demonstrate know-how that the
Islamic State and other jihadist formations in Syria do not have. In
the past ISIS finalized several strikes using commercial quadri-copters
different from the drones used on this occasion, which were not assembled
starting from kits available on the internet; IS's drones never travelled for more than 2 km before, and never had geopositioning and wind-control devices on them. In fact, the Russian
Ministry of Defense said the UAVs were of such sophistication that they could
have been built only with the assistance of “a country with high technological
potential on providing satellite navigation and distant control of firing.”
The
candidates in the region are two: Turkey and Iran. Although both are cooperating
with Russia to enforce a cease-fire agreement in Syria, both also have an
interest in augmenting Russia’s military fatigue. Jacob Shapiro reports that on
January 9, the Foreign Ministry of Turkey protested over Syrian military
operations conducted in one of the de-escalation zones against Turkish-backed
anti-Assad rebels. The
drills would have been carried out with Russia’s and Iran’s blessing, causing
Turkish resentment and the loss of influence in Syria. It is also true that
notwithstanding the temporary rapprochement, Turkey sees Russia as a long term
strategic adversary; this would justify a strategy of attrition against
Russian military consolidation in the area. Finally, it is worth to mention
that the drones took off from the surroundings of Muazzar, controlled by pro-Turkish
rebels.
Then, there is Iran. In a
meeting at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Washington
D.C., Mark Katz and Neda Bolourchi reiterated the divergences of
Russian and Iranian interests over Syria. Iran’s ideal scenario would see a weak Assad relying on the militias of the
Islamic Republic to maintain order in Syria. Accordingly, Iran could try to
sabotage Russian military engagement to emerge as Assad’s most trustworthy and
committed ally. The asymmetric nature of the attack and the use of drones would
coincide with Iran’s military doctrine and force structure.
Russian
and Syrian security services are trying to identify those responsible for the
attack. However, as Maxim Suchkov of the Russian International Affairs Council said in an interview with the Washington Post, “it is still a mystery.”
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